This is a parshah of fertility and population explosion. God promised Avraham that his progeny would be like the stars of the sky and the sands of the seashore. In today’s Parshah, God similarly promises Jacob that
וְהָיָ֤ה זַרְעֲךָ֙ כַּעֲפַ֣ר הָאָ֔רֶץ וּפָרַצְתָּ֛ יָ֥מָּה וָקֵ֖דְמָה וְצָפֹ֣נָה וָנֶ֑גְבָּה וְנִבְרְכ֥וּ בְךָ֛ כׇּל־מִשְׁפְּחֹ֥ת הָאֲדָמָ֖ה וּבְזַרְעֶֽךָ׃
“Your descendants shall be as the dust of the earth; you shall spread out to the west and to the east, to the north and to the south.”
Laban famously agrees to give Rachel to Jacob in marriage, but substitutes Leah. While second fiddle to beloved Rachel, Leah bears Jacob six sons and a daughter. Plus Bilhah and Zilpah bear Jacob sons, and ultimately Rachel bears two. Jacob’s tribe is off to the races.
Through ingenious breeding, Jacob also expands his flocks and wealth.
The explosive growth of this generation is clearly seen as positive, a great blessing.
But, the Rabbis did not consider Jacob’s 13 children a norm. Jacob’s family is mythic, not a paradigm. Infant mortality was too high for most of human history for people to rear Jacob-size families.
Jewish tradition considers children not only a blessing, but also an obligation. The Torah tells us that God blessed Adam and Eve and commanded them to Peru U’rvu: “Be fertile and increase, פְּר֥וּ וּרְב֛וּ”.
The Talmud determines that Jews fulfill this commandment when they replicate themselves, bearing a son and daughter. Two girls or two boys also suffice, because when they grow up and partner, it will average out. Of course, infertility is beyond the control of couples, so this is not a commandment all can fill. Interestingly, the rabbis must have realized that some families did not want more children, or they wouldn’t have bothered to set a minimum.
When David and I were married by Rabbi David Feldman, he presented us with a copy of his then new book, Birth Control and Jewish Law, which he assured us was descriptive, not prescriptive. It is a deep dive into ancient contraceptive practices.
For most of Jewish history, population growth was fairly flat, given violence, assimilation, high infant mortality, and short life spans. Jewish population started growing faster about 200 years ago and increased rapidly until WWII. Think of your own families: my great-grandmother bore 12 children, six of whom lived. My grandmother birthed six, all of whom survived.
Post-Holocaust, with the murder of two-thirds of European Jewry, survival of the Jewish people became a paramount concern. But, even before The Pill, non-Orthodox Jewish families were small.
A Conservative movement leader, Rabbi Kassel Abelson z”l (who died last year at 99) long promoted the idea that Jewish couples should have a 3rd “mitzvah child”, to replace souls lost in WWII; this was part of his standard pre-marital interviews. I read that as time passed, many couples enjoyed introducing their Mitzvah Children to Rabbi Abelson.
The idea was also encouraged in the 80s by UJA Young Leadership. I remember it as a community campaign, and via FB others have corroborated my recollection.
In 2007, Rabbi Abelson and Rabbi Elliot Dorff (mechutanim with our own Rabbi Avruhm Addison) successfully introduced a Rabbinical Assembly Responsum entitled Mitzvah Children. https://www.rabbinicalassembly.org/sites/default/files/public/halakhah/teshuvot/20052010/mitzvah_children.pdf .
The Responsum expresses great compassion for couples challenged with infertility, not infrequently a result of delayed childbearing. The Committee takes pains not to guilt people for whom a third pregnancy is far-fetched, while encouraging third children for whom it is possible. They also call on the Jewish community to assist with matchmaking, subsidize the expenses of raising and educating Jewish children, and to make Jewish spaces more kid-friendly.
So, what happened? It’s impossible to count the number of Mitzvah children, but we know that in general, global birth rates have been declining at jaw-dropping rates, and the Jewish community has been no exception. Even in Israel, which has a high birth rate for a high income country, the average number of births continues to drop even with ultra-Orthodox families placing no limits on their childbearing.
In contrast to the campaign for more Jewish babies, there have also been aggressive campaigns to lower birth rates. In some low income countries, these took the form of draconian sterilizations, and the notorious Chinese one-child policy with forced abortions and surveillance of couples of childbearing age.
Paul Ehrlich’s best selling book, The Population Bomb, published in 1968 with graphic descriptions of the disasters of over-population, predicts mass starvation and global collapse. He popularized the concept of ZPG, zero population growth, which became a rallying cry.
Birth rates were already declining rapidly, and Ehrlich’s predictions have not proven accurate, but his framing of the environmental cost of overpopulation really took off. In my circles, people with more than 2 children were looked at with some suspicion and eco-judgement. It’s impossible to quantify the impact of Ehrlich’s ideas; his cry for controlling explosive population growth may have simply reinforced trends already taking place, since it coincided with the kick-off of the modern environmental movement, 2nd wave feminism, and The Pill.
The Zionist movement took up the idea, turned it on its head, calling it ZPG, Zionist Population Growth.
Fast forward - we are living through an extraordinary time in world population history: the era of depopulation. This summary is from Our World in Data, headed by Max Roser, an Oxford economist.
Human population grew very slowly until 200 years ago. We reached one billion in 1800 and doubled that in 123 years, by the 1920s. The biggest increase has been in the last 50 years, a quadrupling of the world’s population, to at present 8+ billion. It’s a hockey stick curve.
But! Population growth rates peaked in 1963 when the average birth rate per woman was 5+. (Birth rate is the number of offspring women produce. The growthrate is the numbers for total population.)
Birth rates are now about half of that, 2.418. Since then the increase in the world population has slowed DRAMATICALLY, but it is not because of the birthrate, which is 50% lower now. The world is experiencing a massive demographic transition - population increase is primarily from people’s expanding life spans. At present life expectancy in the USA is 79. It’s up to 85 in Hong Kong. Societies around the world will be comprised of an ever higher percentage of elders.
The total global population is predicted to peak at 10+ billion later in the 21st century, when the birthrate drops to ZPG or below. Total population will start contracting.
What’s happened? We have lived through it!
In the pre-modern era, fertility rates were 4.5 to 7 children per woman. The very high levels of infant and child mortality mortality kept population growth low.
There are three major reasons cited for the rapid decline in the global fertility rate, in both high income (this happened first) and but then also low income countries:
the empowerment of women — increased access to education and labor market participation
declining rates of child mortality and improved healthcare. When people expect their kids to survive, they have fewer.
rising costs of bringing up children, due to increased expectations and higher status of kids, along with the decline of child labor (related to urbanization) - kids are now perceived as economic liabilities, not assets.
Some additional factors:
Availability of effective contraception and the decoupling of sex and reproduction, resulting in far fewer unintended pregnancies.
The contraction of extended families who typically helped with child rearing.
The decline of marriage and a corresponding increase in single-person households. This suppresses childbearing, sometimes beyond when it is achievable.
These factors are intensified in the Jewish community, as Jewish women are among the best-educated of any American ethnic group, performing demanding jobs that leave less time for child rearing.
Jews reflect others in their socio-economic bracket, and higher incomes correlate with lower fertility. They are also more mobile, often moving far from their families of origin.
Many governments consider low birthrates and depopulation a crisis. It will cause many problems, as our societies become older and older. Pensions based on young people paying in while elders withdraw funds will obviously need to be redesigned.
Migration and immigration of young labor (African populations are growing much faster than other continents) will be essential for elderly countries.
Efforts to encourage more births, as many countries try, seem to be wholly ineffective. In Scandinavia, despite generous benefits, long parental leave, and free day care, birth rates are in the 1.5 range. But they’re doing great compared to prosperous South Korea, with a birth rate of .75.
But, there are also likely to be many creative responses. Seniors will have long retirements [we already do!]; societies will need to deploy them better as resources, not just service/resource recipients. My Aunt Ruth was retired for 42 years. When she was in her 90s, she reflected that had she realized she would live so long, she would have done something more meaningful than playing cards and mah jongg.
Jewish communities will look very different. Jewish continuity has always been based in family life. At present, about a third of Jewish households are comprised of one person; how will that work? As people outlive partners, that number will only grow.
There are already more people in our community without children than previous generations (10% versus 20%). And that means many people without extended families - no nieces, nephews, or grandkids. Many children will be without uncles, aunts, and cousins.
One mini counter-trend is women having babies independently, and their families pitching in, with grandparents doing a lot of childcare. Three of my friends - though this is what we call “anecdata”! Grandparents are healthier and more active, more inclined to age in place, and increasing their commitment to help out with grandkids, at least here in our community. Also, younger generations are less inclined to move far away, preferring to live closer to grandparents, or moving near their parents with the intention of helping with child rearing. Likewise some grandparents are moving to be near their kids. This was unheard of among our crowd a generation ago.
Questions:
Q) How do we shift paradigms and embrace contraction, as opposed to assuming the Torah’s growth mindset?
Q) How might the Jewish community respond to these changes?
Q) How do these trends impact you, your family, or your community/ies?
1 comment:
Two members of DD turn out to have close connections with Rabbi Abelson. He was close to DIna Pinsky's grandparents, and the childhood rabbi of Jeremy Brochin. Anyone else?
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